Hurricane Pam: the eye of the storm

The Senate committee investigating federal management of Hurricane Katrina is looking closely at the simulation, “Hurricane Pam”. Except for the death toll, “Pams” scenario was very realistic, but what does that mean? [u>Deaths: [/u> “Pam” :up to 60,000. Katrina: 1200 bodies found, 2700 people still listed as missing [u>Flooding:[/u> Pam: 10 to 20 feet of…

The Gestalt psychology of perception

An interesting piece on Classilog ponders our assumptions about the nature or reality of thing we perceive (or imagine). Gestalt psychology is very interesting in a simulation concept, since it describes ways in which we make assumptions based on limited data. Sorry not to have blogged for ten days – working hard on my own…

The rules of modelling

Thanks to Financial Cryptography for pointing out the Economists coverage of a research paper by Thomas Griffiths and Joshua Tenenbaum, about the way people think ahead. They argue that humans have internalised Bayesian methods, which allow us to make predictions when which we have insufficient evidence. Seems to me this is critical to the nature…

Simulation, psychology and ISVs in financial trading

Interesting blog article on the use of simulation in training financial traders by Dr Brett Steenbarger, a psychologist who is also a trader and is writing a book on trader performance. He says: “The simulator works from compressed historical data, so its possible to select any previous day of the year and replay it for…

Tax and liability in Second Life?

Terranova has two stories about Second Life: firstly that the US taxman may seek to tax trades within the virtual world (not just outside it, eg selling game currency on EBay), and secondly that Linden Labs may pay compensation to some owners after their virtual real estate lost value. The taxman story hasnt happened yet,…

Virtual prisons

It had to come; Second Life now has its own prison. Read this in the context of recent academic discussions about virtual worlds and the law, and my earlier discussion about cyberspace and heaven. Details of Second Lifes prison area for offending users are here. Users who continue to offend are banned completely. Its tempting…

Official simulations in Britain

Its fascinating how many “official” simulations take place here these days. There are so many reports on Google Alerts that Ive stopped covering them all. The UK is probably behind the US – again, scarcely a day goes past without a Google Alert that some US local authority is simulating a disaster. Examples in the…